First things first, no, we are not sorry for the very blatant Dark reference.
Secondly, although multiple portals and outlets have conducted these polls across all states, the particularly reliable ones being CNN, Cook Political Report, POLITICO, Real Clear Politics – we see an almost unanimous Biden lead in all these graphs.
That being said, it is important we take a look at the past and hopefully learn from it as well. Back in 2016, most polls predicted Hillary Clinton for the win, and were left dumbfounded when America voted Trump as President. But then again, did they really?
Technically, Clinton did win the popular vote of the citizens, by a clear 2 point margin. The trouble arose because of the way the votes were distributed in the states which comprise the Electoral College.
In the history of the American Presidential elections, it has only ever happened twice that a President has been elected despite losing the popular vote of the citizens. The first time it happened was back in 2000, with George W. Bush, and then again, years later, with Donald Trump in 2016.
Is there a chance of the past repeating itself? Although it is a possibility, the probability of that happening is slim. Back in 2016, Clinton only had an average 5 point lead in the show. Today, Biden has an average 8 point lead; thus disrupting a balance quite considerably, and in turn, seemingly tipping the scales in his favor. Even when Clinton was at her polling peak against Trump, back in 2016, the margin was much lesser in comparison to Biden's current lead over Trump.
After having compared and analyzed polling during the same time bracket in 13 previous Presidential Election campaigns, it is almost tragically evident that no winning candidate has been able to overthrow and win over a polling deficit of nearly the same magnitude as the one Trump is facing now, even as we write this. However, with an ongoing global pandemic and Trump's whimsical and erratic nature, the tables might just turn at any moment, hence making it difficult for us to count him out, just yet.
And we also feel that Trump has far more power to sway people for him than his counterpart, and with his vast amount of experience, it should not be much trouble for him to get the majority opinion in his favor.
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